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Eclipse
The
power industry is driven both by the details of plant operation, but also
by wider macro-economics, market and regulatory developments and governmental
policy all of which have a key role in shaping the future of the industry.
ECLIPSE
(Emissions Constraints and Policy Interactions in Power System Economics)
is a proprietary model that uses a Mathematical Programming approach to
model the fundamental economics of power markets, allowing for the interaction
with political, environmental and regulatory developments.
ECLIPSE
captures the complexitiy of the power markets in terms of contracts, carbon
pricing, emissions constraints, renewable obligation certificates, security
of supply and the evolution of generation capacity within a single consistent
framework.
ECLIPSE Key Features
Despatch
Despatch of all major power stations down to an hourly granularity. Accurate
modeling of different generation technologies, including thermal plant,
plant co-fired with biomass, hydro and other renewable schemes, and modeling
of commercial constraints associated with off-take and fuel contracts.
ECLIPSE utilizes detailed information on fixed and variable costs, technical
constraints and efficiencies for each power station.
Carbon
Pricing
The European Carbon Trading Scheme (EU ETS) has a significant effect on
generator economics. ECLIPSE models both the impact of carbon pricing
on station running and power prices as well as the impact of free allocations
on station profitability. ECLIPSE utilizes IPA’s carbon price modeling
to inform assumptions about future carbon market prices and free allocations
at installation level.
Emission
Limits
Power plants are subject to emissions restrictions under the LCPD and
IPPC which limit the volume and rate of emission of certain pollutants.
ECLIPSE represents these emissions limits, and can simulate their impact
on plant economics and power pricing. The dispatch of coal is optimized
over the year to ensure maximized profitability over restricted running
hours.
Renewables
Obligation (RO)
The Renewables Obligation is the main renewables support mechanism in
Great Britain. ECLIPSE provides detailed forecasts of ROC prices and represents
the complexities of the ROC price mechanism. ECLIPSE models the non-linear
price curve and the interaction with the dispatch of controllable renewables
such as biomass and co-fired coal. ECLIPSE captures RO restrictions (such
as applied to co-firing), technology banding, headroom, and the proposed
ROC over-supply price mechanism.
Capacity
ECLIPSE models the economically optimal development of capacity over the
forecast horizon. It calculates optimal capacity build rates over the
range of generation technologies dependent upon capital and operating
costs, fuel, carbon and ROC prices. Build rates are constrained by assumptions
on the ability of the industry to develop, finance, build and connect
generation. Renewable technologies are also subject to economic resource
constraints. Capacity costs are subject to cost curves, reflecting reducing
capacity costs for nascent technologies, as well as the quality of the
available resource for renewable generation.
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