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Market
Modelling
IPA Energy + Water Economics are leaders in the provision of market modelling and
price forecasting to clients both in the UK and Internationally. Working
with a wide range of clients over the last 12 years has enabled IPA to
develop unrivalled modelling capability, in terms of both the experience
of our modelling team and the proprietary software that we have developed.
IPA's
extensive knowledge and experience across the energy industry ensures
that our modelling accurately represents the evolving power industry.
Our capabilities have been widely used by market participants across the
industry, to support their asset base development as well as their on-going
commercial operations. IPA works for a wide range of industry participants,
including suppliers, generators, banks, lawyers, landowners, governments
and regulators.
IPA
are widely used throughout the industry due to the integrity and accuracy
of our forecasts. IPA produces a quarterly UK power forecast - Powerview
- that describes our view of the impact of market developments on the
evolution of power prices.
Services
We provide services in :
- Market Simulation
- Price Forecasting
- Carbon and Emissions Prices
- ROC Valuations
- Demand Forecasting
- Datasets and Auditing
Modelling
Experience & Philosophy
Transparency
IPA models have had the benefit of development over a number of years
and have been reviewed by a wide customer base. We have always believed
that models should be transparent to the client, and as a result our
models have been available for a full data and technical audit by a
number of clients. This has ensured continuous proven quality in terms
of data accuracy and modelling methodology.
Market Developments
IPA continues to develop models to ensure it can offer market participants
tools to aid understanding of changing markets and industry structure.
Developments, particularly in terms of environmental and fiscal policy
have the potential to greatly change the profitability of many industry
participants. IPA continues to respond to this need, and lead the industry
in developing modelling tools to address the impact of these macro-economic
drivers on power price, profitability and the structure of the industry.
IPA has a range of models that can be tailored to meet specific client
requirements. This gives IPA the modelling flexibility to develop results
that meaningfully quantify parameters that are of key interest to the
client. This ensures that our modelling results can be used as a key
tool in clients' decision processes.
Focus
IPA have always provided studies focused upon client requirements, enabling
us to deliver the information required by the client to make strategic
decisions, and extract value from the market. This typically includes
the identification of key issues, risks with possible mitigating strategies,
and credible ranges for prices and other key study variables. IPA's
client-focused approach allows clients to comprehensively review modelling
assumptions, methodologies and results. This level of transparency can
be critical in ensuring that projects contribute to due diligence processes
ahead of significant investment or lending decisions.
Market
Modelling Methodologies
IPA have embedded their extensive knowledge of the wider energy industry
into a proprietary macro-economic model - ECLIPSE
(Emissions Constraints and Policy Interactions in Power System Economics).
It uses a Mathematical Programming approach to modelling the fundamental
economics of different power markets, allowing for the interaction with
political, environmental and regulatory developments. This includes modelling
the interactions of renewables, emissions, carbon and other economic drivers.
It
also can perform as a despatch simulation model using a mathematical programming
formulation to despatch plant on a short term basis within system constraints
and limits. Costs and constraints of ramp up and the needs of spinning
reserve can be addressed.
Additional
Modelling Tools
In addition to power market modelling IPA has a significant range of energy
market expertise and a library of other modelling tools. These can be
used to enrich a power market study and to address client specific issues.
This ensures that a power modelling exercise can deliver maximum value
for the client. A summary of some of our additional modelling capabilities
is given below:
Coal, Gas and Oil Price Forecasting
IPA provides commodity price forecasts based on our extensive energy
industry experience.
Portfolio
and Contract Optimisation
We have developed tools to optimise portfolio performance, maximising
value relative to the required risk profile.
Financial
Models
Experience of building and reviewing financial models to support asset
investments.
Contracts
and Financial Structures
Expertise in providing advice on optimisation of contracts and financial
structures for a wide range of projects
IPA
Client List - Modelling Projects
Utilities,
Project Developers Suppliers & Generators
Alberta Power, AES Barry, AES Medway, Barking Power, British Energy, East
Midlands Electricity, Centrica, Eastern Energy, El Paso Europe, Eskom,
Independent Energy, Jersey Electricity, Guernsey Electricity, London Electricity,
Lunar Energy, Malakoff (Malaysia), Midlands Electricity, Mission Energy,
Northern Electricity, Powergen, Scottish & Southern, Scottish Power,
Seeboard, Swalec, Teesside Power, Yorkshire Electricity.
Banks & Financial Institutions
Bank of Scotland; Barclays de Zoete Wedd; Credit Suisse; JP Morgan; Macquarie
Bank; Morgan Grenfell; Rothschilds Netherlands); Schroders; Platina Finance
Governments & Regulators
European Commission DG I & XVII; Kyrgyzstan, SEA & Ministry of
Labour; IVO; Nigeria, Office of the Presidential Advisor; Republic of
Ireland, CER; EBRD; Scottish Executive
Industry, Legal Firms & Land Owners
Craigengillan Estates; Euroil; Hammond Suddards Edge; Scottish Water
Quality
Assurance
IPA's activities are undertaken in accordance with a management system
that is consistent with the requirements of the International Standard
ISO 9001. This ensures the effective functioning of all our business activities.
IPA have clear and practical quality assurance policies that are established
and implemented throughout the business. Processes and standards of performance
are continually reviewed and improved to ensure optimum levels of quality
for all areas of IPAs work.
Particular
care is taken in selecting the qualifications and experience of the team
members nominated for all assignments. We believe that this is the single
most important factor in the delivery of a quality product. Each team
member is responsible for the quality of work they produce for the project.
In addition, IPA use a peer review system where all reports are critically
assessed for consistency and quality by staff who have not been involved
in its preparation, but who have the necessary background and experience
to carry out such a review.
IPA Energy + Water Economics is committed to providing technically excellent, reliable
and cost effective consulting services designed to meet the needs of the
client. By combining individual skills within the team, we aim to deliver
a quality commitment in the content and standard of all deliverables within
the work programme of a project.
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