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Price
Forecasting and Modelling
IPA Energy + Water Economics is a leading provider of forecasting and market modelling
capability to the energy industry in Western Europe. This has been a key
area of the Company’s expertise since its formation in 1989. Continuous
development has kept IPA at the forefront of modelling the full complexity
of future energy markets. Our models are used to support trading and to
analyse potential investments. IPA has produced specialist models for
market operations around the world.
Market
Simulation
IPA’s high level modelling experience provides expertise in the
development and operation of market simulations, used by investors seeking
to enter new markets as well as Governments and Regulators seeking to
introduce competition or to restructure existing markets.
Price
Forecasting
A key factor in succeeding in energy markets is understanding and reacting
to changes. IPA expertise is widely used for short and long-term price
forecasting, evaluating bulk purchases of electricity and gas, setting
of tariffs, hedging of price risk, optimising fuel purchase, and optimising
plant performance.
Carbon
and Emissions
IPA's proprietary macro-economic model (ECLIPSE)
includes an in-house carbon model and evaluates dynamic interactions between
policy measures and their impact on individual plant profitability.
ROC
Valuations
IPA provides expert assessment of the risks and opportunities associated
with volatility and uncertainty in power, Renewable Obligation Certificates
and carbon prices, based our state-of-the-art modelling expertise and
proprietary integrated energy model, ECLIPSE.
IPA also provides expertise in analysing and hedging the impact of weather-related
risks such as wind speeds.
Demand
Forecasting
Understanding demand is essential to the efficient planning and operation
of energy markets and industries. We offer clients a wide range of short
to long term demand forecasting services.
Datasets
and Audit
IPA maintains datasets of generating plant, operating costs, commodity
prices and fuel contracts, transmission charges and load which can be
used as input to client's models and analysis. IPA’s modelling team
also provide audit service, to evaluate clients models and assumptions.
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Current
and Recent Experience in Price Forecasting and Modelling
UK
- Marine Energy Study
Development of a Transmission Charging Calculation module that interacts
with IPA's electricity price forecasting model ECLIPSE, to investigate
the effect of charges on renewable build throughout GB.
UK
- Price Forecast Advice
For one of the major vertically integrated power companies in the UK,
produced a projection of likely Renewable Obligation Certificate values
under a range of assumptions looking forward to 2028. The client wanted
the competitive position of wind energy to be established, and compared
a projection of costs of generation from alternative renewable sources.
UK
- Price Forecast Advice
IPA was appointed to provide independent advice to board members of a
large energy company. This involved forecasting power, carbon and ROC
prices over a 15 year time horizon, and providing advice on strategic
development plans.
UK
- Price Forecast
IPA provided a report to support the valuation of a generation project
for a US Energy Company. The report provided a forecast of GB wholesale
gas, power and carbon prices over the period 2004 to 2015. It also quantified
the impact of CCL, ROCs, emissions constraints, carbon trading, and the
penetration of different generation technologies.
UK
- Balancing Market Analysis
A report on the expected level and behaviour of electricity prices balancing
market prices, energy market volatility and the Balancing Services Use
of System Charge. A comparison of these results was made with energy prices
in other markets.
Northern
Ireland - Price Forecast Advice
For a CHP owner a projection was made of the prices of power in the Northern
Ireland market looking up to 10 years ahead. Key factors in the forecast
were the current auction process in the market, the likely impact of UK
power prices in the future over the Moyle interconnector and the impact
of the Eire market and the interconnector expansion. A model of the all
Ireland power market was developed recognising transmission constraints.
Ireland
- Dataset
IPA provide a database of the generation assets in both Eire and Northern
Ireland to a European energy strategy consultancy for use in their proprietary
analytical work. This data contains information regarding the ownership
and technical parameters of all generating sets. This database is updated
every six months.
Italy
- Price Forecast
IPA was asked to assist JP Morgan in providing a forecast of the future
revenue of three generators in the Italian Market, to assist with the
pre-privatisation stage of the state utility ENEL.
Netherlands
As part of a due diligence exercise for a consortium of banks, supporting
a bid for a Dutch generator, IPA provided a price forecast for the Netherlands
power market.
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